Toyota Not Battling Domestic Pickups For Full-Size Sales

[DOHCmarauder]

Toyota Honda GM? Is that reguards to whats considered the big three. Because in michigan we still consider the big three FORD GM and CHRYSLER

Which always intrigued me after Chrysler was sold off to the Germans.


I guess it's OK now since Daimler dumped 'em.

 

[polarbear]

Top 10 Pickups Sales Figures
Year-to-Date (YTD) Sept. 2008

Ford F-Series
392,698 -26.9% YTD
September 2008: 32,727
September 2007: 56,065

Chevrolet Silverado
370,502 -22.5% YTD
September 2008: 50,428
September 2007: 52,480

Dodge Ram
196,058 -29.0% YTD
September 2008: 20,812
September 2007: 30,100

GMC Sierra
133,811 -14.9% YTD
September 2008: 18,744
September 2007: 18,445

Toyota Tacoma
117,313 -13.4% YTD
September 2008: 9,176
September 2007: 13,996

Toyota Tundra
115,026 -20.4% YTD
September 2008: 7,696
September 2007: 19,571

Ford Ranger
54,815 -4.6% YTD
September 2008: 3,915
September 2007: 4,019

Chevrolet Colorado
44,884 -24.2% YTD
September 2008: 3,359
September 2007: 5,598

Nissan Frontier
40,873 -19.4% YTD
September 2008: 1,534
September 2007: 5,480

Nissan Titan
29,900 -41.3% YTD
September 2008: 2,872
September 2007: 5,193

Most certainly a bad September......but still a smaller drop than Chevy/Ford YTD.

Jack- that's because the pickup market didn't really crater until right about Memorial Day. It's been a downward spiral ever since that isn't reflect in the YTD numbers.

By the numbers:

Ford F-Series
392,698 -26.9% YTD

Silverado/Sierra (same truck, different franchise)
504,313 -20.6% (between the two of them)

Toyota Tundra
115,026 -20.4% YTD

That's 8:1, YTD. Little over 10:1 if we throw Dodge into the mix. And don't believe the resale myth- I have to shop 'em all the time. The 'Yota is neither better nor worse... unless they throw 0% financing out like they did now, which grenades trade-in values.

But yes- Toyota does have the capacity to shift that production around. Where I was going with this, though, is that the stories playing out exactly as I had expected. Initial offering takes off, all pudits and writers say "yep, the Big 3's done for now." Once Toyota fans own the new toy, sales drop off- truck business as usual.

We've seen this movie a few times already (Prior Tundra, Titan, Ridgeline, now this). Fully predictable. All that being said- not a bad truck. Just doesn't appeal to enough mainstream pickup buyers.

 

[DOHCmarauder]

Jack- that's because the pickup market didn't really crater until right about Memorial Day. It's been a downward spiral ever since that isn't reflect in the YTD numbers.

By the numbers:

Ford F-Series
392,698 -26.9% YTD

Silverado/Sierra (same truck, different franchise)
504,313 -20.6% (between the two of them)

Toyota Tundra
115,026 -20.4% YTD

That's 8:1, YTD. Little over 10:1 if we throw Dodge into the mix. And don't believe the resale myth- I have to shop 'em all the time. The 'Yota is neither better nor worse... unless they throw 0% financing out like they did now, which grenades trade-in values.

But yes- Toyota does have the capacity to shift that production around. Where I was going with this, though, is that the stories playing out exactly as I had expected. Initial offering takes off, all pudits and writers say "yep, the Big 3's done for now." Once Toyota fans own the new toy, sales drop off- truck business as usual.

We've seen this movie a few times already (Prior Tundra, Titan, Ridgeline, now this). Fully predictable. All that being said- not a bad truck. Just doesn't appeal to enough mainstream pickup buyers.

And I say Bull Pucky........Toyota met their 1st year sales goal of 200,000.

The ENTIRE pick up market tanked (The Tundra the LEAST YTD)

The reason the Tundra shows the current numbers is that they stopped production a month or two ago.

And what exactly is the point of combining 3 different makes to compare sales to one???


Want to place a wager that the Tundra sold more 1/2 tons than both GMC and Dodge???


Toyota doesn't feel in the current economic climate it's profitable for the amount of volume being sold.

Being that Toyota actually makes money selling product, while GM and Ford lose money, it's obvious why Toyota won't throw more good money after bad.



BTW, you have NEVER seen this movie played out before........with the weak exception of the 100,000 units that Nissan hoped for with the ridiculous non-optioned Titan.....there had NEVER been a head to head challenge to the full size truck market.


Previous Tundra and Ridgeline were niche vehicles at best.

 

[polarbear]

And I say Bull Pucky........Toyota met their 1st year sales goal of 200,000.

True- in a year that Ford and GM sold a million each.

And what exactly is the point of combining 3 different makes to compare sales to one???

Full size market share.

Want to place a wager that the Tundra sold more 1/2 tons than both GMC and Dodge???

We'd have to throw GMC in with Chevy, since it's the same truck, different franchise. Dodge sells very few 1/2T's, GM however, is stronger in 1/2T's than 3/4's. The silverado/Sierra line is, probably, Toyota's biggest problem. It's a successful product line in a market segment that's cratering. Still big numbers- but GM and Ford have proved they can hang onto their market share in that segment.

The ENTIRE pick up market tanked (The Tundra the LEAST YTD)

Toyota doesn't feel in the current economic climate it's profitable for the amount of volume being sold.

Being that Toyota actually makes money selling product, while GM and Ford lose money, it's obvious why Toyota won't throw more good money after bad.

True- good businessmen they are. Which is why, stating the obvious, they're backing off here.


BTW, you have NEVER seen this movie played out before........with the weak exception of the 100,000 units that Nissan hoped for with the ridiculous non-optioned Titan.....there has NEVER been a head to head challenge to the full size truck market.


Previous Tundra and Ridgeline were niche vehicles at best.

And- shown by market share numbers- still are. Toyota's mainstream pickup was- and still is- the Tacoma.

comments in blue.

 

[DOHCmarauder]

Negative.

If memory serves, Ford sold 750,000 in '07 and GM slightly more when combining Chev/GMC.


Toyota MAX capacity for the Tundra was never more than 300,000.

They were to intro a 3/4 ton and a 1/2 ton diesel.

Even at full capacity, they weren't going to take over the full size market.

The fact remains that GM has sold 100,000 LESS units YTD, Ford sold 130,000 less. The Tundra has aprox 30,000 less units out......again, the smallest drop % wise.


GM and Ford are down +-25%.....holding on to market share, sure........to a market that's tanking.


You know that if/when the economy turns around and truck sales become the cash cow they were, Toyota will jump right back in with both feet.

Until then, Toy will just sit back and watch the 1/2 ton desels from GM and Ford flop......and laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[polarbear]

Negative.

If memory serves, Ford sold 750,000 in '07 and GM slightly more when combining Chev/GMC.


Toyota MAX capacity for the Tundra was never more than 300,000.

They were to intro a 3/4 ton and a 1/2 ton diesel.

Even at full capacity, they weren't going to take over the full size market.

The fact remains that GM has sold 100,000 LESS units YTD, Ford sold 130,000 less. The Tundra has aprox 30,000 less units out......again, the smallest drop % wise.


GM and Ford are down +-25%.....holding on to market share, sure........to a market that's tanking.


You know that if/when the economy turns around and truck sales become the cash cow they were, Toyota will jump right back in with both feet.

Until then, Toy will just sit back and watch the 1/2 ton desels from GM and Ford flop......and laugh all the way to the bank.

As a car guy, I see it completely different. Full-size pickups, while waaay down, are still the single largest market segment. Toyota has had, traditionally, about a 8% market share in that segment. The Tundra's introduction, along with the obligatory press and advertising campaign, saw an expected one-year sales spike. What I expected to see- and saw- was a one year sales spike... before they went back to their traditional 8-10% market share.

What that market share means simply is this- Toyota is selling that truck to folks that would prefer to buy a Toyota first, and just happen to be in the market for a full-size pickup. Otherwise, they've made exactly zero progress getting the Tundra accepted in the mainstream pickup market. If they were, that market share needle would be moving- if anything, it's gone backwards in the last few months as the Tacoma outsells it again. All that loops us right back around to where the Tundra/Tacoma was before the new Tundra hit the showrooms.

Toyota, however, is waaay smarter than GM and Ford, and knows when to cut their losses. What does surprise me though, is that they thought it'd work in the first place. One look and drive, and I was convinced they were on the wrong track. Call me wrong all you want- but I ain't this time.

 

[DOHCmarauder]

As a car guy, I see it completely different. Full-size pickups, while waaay down, are still the single largest market segment. Toyota has had, traditionally, about a 8% market share in that segment. The Tundra's introduction, along with the obligatory press and advertising campaign, saw an expected one-year sales spike. What I expected to see- and saw- was a one year sales spike... before they went back to their traditional 8-10% market share.

What that market share means simply is this- Toyota is selling that truck to folks that would prefer to buy a Toyota first, and just happen to be in the market for a full-size pickup. Otherwise, they've made exactly zero progress getting the Tundra accepted in the mainstream pickup market. If they were, that market share needle would be moving- if anything, it's gone backwards in the last few months as the Tacoma outsells it again. All that loops us right back around to where the Tundra/Tacoma was before the new Tundra hit the showrooms.

Toyota, however, is waaay smarter than GM and Ford, and knows when to cut their losses. What does surprise me though, is that they thought it'd work in the first place. One look and drive, and I was convinced they were on the wrong track. Call me wrong all you want- but I ain't this time.

Again, from memory, the 1st Gen Tundra had less than 70,000 sales in its last year. Not even close to an 8% share when GM/Ford/Dodge were over 2 million.

The current Tundra is well ahead of that pace even in this current economy.



Full size trucks may be the largest segment but they're tanking fast:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html?mod=mdc_h_econhl


I extensively compared the trucks before I made my purchase. In '07, only the Denali came close at a much higher price tag with a questionable AWD drivetrain.


In fact, your logic (as flawed as it may be) is exactly why people stick with GM's and Fords even after they may have been let down. They have a loyal following Toy has not established in this segment.....yet.


Toyota did not take over the small car segment in 2 years, it's silly to expect anything different concerning trucks.



As far as being surprised.......even Toyota could not have predicted $4.00 a gallon fuel and the meltdown of the economy. A very rare mistake concerning product launch.

 

[CaFordDude]

Regardless of their product Toyota has a great business model. To bad Ford, GM and Dodge are so entrenched in their failing model, that they are having a hard time making changes to make their business profitable again.

 

[blackhat620]

Regardless of their product Toyota has a great business model. To bad Ford, GM and Dodge are so entrenched in their failing model, that they are having a hard time making changes to make their business profitable again.

I don't disagree that Toyota has a great business model. But let's not forget the Ford & GM have a lot of Union baggage they can't just toss to the side. Toyota uses fewer workers to do the same job. Ford & GM, do to Union contract restraints, are forced to keep workers they do not necessarily need.

 

[polarbear]

As far as being surprised.......even Toyota could not have predicted $4.00 a gallon fuel and the meltdown of the economy. A very rare mistake concerning product launch.

Regardless of their product Toyota has a great business model. To bad Ford, GM and Dodge are so entrenched in their failing model, that they are having a hard time making changes to make their business profitable again.

=> with both of you. One thing Toyota is great at is the ability to fix a miss.

Know who's even better at it? Hyundai- look at how far they've come in a few short years.

 

[DOHCmarauder]

=> with both of you. One thing Toyota is great at is the ability to fix a miss.

Know who's even better at it? Hyundai- look at how far they've come in a few short years.

I kinda like that new Genesis(sp?)

Korea is doing to Japan what Japan did to us.

 

[polarbear]

I kinda like that new Genesis(sp?)

Korea is doing to Japan what Japan did to us.

I rode in a new Genesis last week- freakin' impressive. The Sonata's even more amazing, considering the price-point. Out-drives a Camry, IMO... by a lot.

 

[DOHCmarauder]

I rode in a new Genesis last week- freakin' impressive. The Sonata's even more amazing, considering the price-point. Out-drives a Camry, IMO... by a lot.

Dude, anything you drive is better than a Toyota......LOL!!!!

 

[polarbear]

I stopped worshipping at Toyota's altar in the late 90's, when the CEO addressed a shareholders meeting and explained their quality bar was set higher than the consumer would actually find useful. Yeah right- Daimler's CEO had the same talk a few years prior, and we all know what happened to the legendary Mercedes build quality.

 

[DOHCmarauder]

I stopped worshipping at Toyota's altar in the late 90's, when the CEO addressed a shareholders meeting and explained their quality bar was set higher than the consumer would actually find useful. Yeah right- Daimler's CEO had the same talk a few years prior, and we all know what happened to the legendary Mercedes build quality.

Well, I guess that means at one time you did worship....I never have. (however, I USED to thank the Lord and Henry Ford now and then)


The more I think about this topic, the more I admire Toy's game plan.

Instead of continuing to try and sell trucks by giving up $10,000+- in incentives and losing money, Toy stopped production and told the big 2 1/2 you can have this incredible shrinking segment.


Overheard in Ford/GM's boardroom:

"We may lose money on every vehicle, but if it wasn't for the volume we'd go broke."